This year’s Best Actor race is poised to feature several prior winners and former nominees competing against an ever-growing slate of newcomers and marquee names yet to receive their first Oscar nominations. Most of the films on our list of potential Best Actor performances have screened for critics or at a festival, but the rest will debut soon, and early buzz is out for some that borrow from existing source material. Wasn’t it just yesterday that Coda was crowned Best Picture at the 94th Academy Awards? Not quite, but the 2023 season is now in full swing, and we are back to kick off our series with the Best Actor contest. S till, three months away from nominations, almost five months until the show, and with the last show barely out of our collective consciousness, we are back, so it’s still pretty ridiculous. What movie can hold nine months of scrutiny and not stumble? Very few is the answer, and that would be the case for any winner from any year if you talked about them for that long. This is a detriment to many films’ long-term aspirations and the viability of the awards landscape, so we are trying to not add to fuel to the fire. It is now to the point where a film’s Oscar chances have crept more and more into the release conversation, which gives studios little incentive to participate in the festival circuit. The “should win” or “could win” conversation happening earlier and earlier has proven to be kryptonite in the long term for frontrunners. The awards season calendar has always operated as a 365-year beat, but the prediction business has typically been a thing that we held off to give hopefuls a chance to breathe. Our Ridiculously Early Predictions series is slightly less ridiculous nowadays because we have been pushing them off.
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